Plzen 0-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Karviná travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Doosan Aréna — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 0W 0D 6L from 6 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Karviná in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Plzen, 0 for Karviná and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Karviná in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 67% and Karviná 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 67% | Karviná 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 3.34 xG and Karviná 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.469 / defence 1.056 | Karviná attack 0.721 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.175. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 3.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Plzen games / 12 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 83% | Draw 10% | Karviná 6%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.20 | Draw 10.00 | Karviná 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Karviná 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 83% | Draw 10% | Karviná 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 57% | xG Plzen 3.34 / Karviná 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.469 / def 1.056 | Karviná attack 0.721 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Plzen (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.34
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Karviná kick off?
Plzen vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Plzen 0 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Plzen vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Karviná part of?
Plzen vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 83% chance of winning, Karviná a 6% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plzen and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Plzen and Karviná in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.34. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.1%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
83%
1.20
10%
9.73
6%
15.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.34
Plzen xG
Total xG
4.24
0.89
Karviná xG
1.20
83%
Home win
9.73
10%
Draw
15.87
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
4%
28.33
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 3.34 expected goals for Plzen and 0.89 for Karviná, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 1D 3L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Plzen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karviná's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.33 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Karviná in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Karviná in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Karviná have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Karviná away?
Plzen's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.67 PPG; Karviná away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plzen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Karviná?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Plzen at 83%, Karviná at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 67% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Plzen's games and 67% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 67% of Karviná's.
Do Plzen and Karviná tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Karviná in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 3.34 xG and Karviná 0.89 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 3.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.47 / defence 1.06 against Karviná attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 83% | Draw 10% | Karviná 6%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 6% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 67%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Karviná winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.