Plzen 3-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plzen, 0 for FK Jablonec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 48% versus FK Jablonec 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 53% | FK Jablonec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.85 xG and FK Jablonec 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.026 / defence 0.965 | FK Jablonec attack 1.145 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.216. Data: 55 Plzen games / 55 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 49% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | FK Jablonec 3.70. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 49% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Plzen 1.85 / FK Jablonec 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.026 / def 0.965 | FK Jablonec attack 1.145 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Plzen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 3 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 49% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.10
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.20
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
4%
23.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Plzen and 1.34 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 41W 12D 7L from 60 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 15W 22D 23L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 23W 3D 3L from 29 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 41W 12D 7L in their last 60 games (2.25 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 22D 23L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.48 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 48%, FK Jablonec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Plzen and 55% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plzen's recent matches and 52% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Plzen's matches and 55% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out FK Jablonec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 3-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.85 xG and FK Jablonec 1.34 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 49% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, FK Jablonec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.