Pardubice 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Slovácko travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pardubice) versus 1.20 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pardubice, 1 for Slovácko and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Slovácko 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 48% | Slovácko 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.92 xG and Slovácko 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.762 / defence 0.904 | Slovácko attack 0.875 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Pardubice games / 35 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Slovácko 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Slovácko 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Pardubice 0.92 / Slovácko 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.762 / def 0.904 | Slovácko attack 0.875 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Slovácko xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 33% chance of winning, Slovácko a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
33%
3.01
32%
3.10
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Slovácko xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.94 for Slovácko, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 6D 21L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 12L across 40 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.12 PPG, Slovácko on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 21L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 15W 13D 12L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Pardubice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.40 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 45%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pardubice) and 55% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; Slovácko in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pardubice's recent games and 55% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.92 xG and Slovácko 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 0.90 against Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 0.73, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 48%, Slovácko 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.