Opava 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Opava at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Opava vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Opava host Bohemians 1905 at Stadion v Městských sadech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Opava 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Opava attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.688 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Opava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Opava games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Opava 47% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 24%. Fair-value odds: Opava 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 4.17. Opava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Opava at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Opava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Opava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion v Městských sadech • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Opava 47% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Opava 1.30 / Bohemians 1905 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Opava attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.688 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Opava (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Opava xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Opava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Opava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Stadion v Městských sadech.
What was the final score in Opava vs Bohemians 1905?
Opava 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Opava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion v Městských sadech.
What competition is Opava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Opava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Opava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Opava a 47% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Opava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Opava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Opava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Opava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Opava and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Opava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Opava's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Opava's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Opava Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.43
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Opava xG
Total xG
2.16
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Opava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Opava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Opava and 0.86 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Opava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Opava
Pre-Season
Bohemians 1905
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Opava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Opava
0
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Opava and Bohemians 1905?
From 2 meetings on record, Opava have won 0, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Opava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Opava.
Who has won more matches between Opava and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Opava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Opava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Opava 0-1 at Stadion v Městských sadech, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Opava 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Opava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Opava attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Opava 47% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 24%, with Opava to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.