Mlada Boleslav 3-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.83 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.17). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 40% and Sigma Olomouc 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mlada Boleslav 40% | Sigma Olomouc 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.992 / defence 1.124 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.226 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.258. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sigma Olomouc have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Mlada Boleslav games / 5 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 41%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Sigma Olomouc 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Sigma Olomouc 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.61 / Sigma Olomouc 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.992 / def 1.124 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.226 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sigma Olomouc xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.23x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.38
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.34
1.73
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.73 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 3.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Sigma Olomouc's attacking output running into Mlada Boleslav's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 40%, Sigma Olomouc 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Mlada Boleslav and 100% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 80% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 3-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.73 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.12 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.23 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 41%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 40%, Sigma Olomouc 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mlada Boleslav scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.