Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Karviná meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Mlada Boleslav's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Karviná's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games).
Karviná — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 61% versus Karviná 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | Karviná 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.348 / defence 1.660 | Karviná attack 0.592 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.199. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Mlada Boleslav games / 23 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 23% | Karviná 24%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Karviná 4.17. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Karviná 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 23% | Karviná 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.85 / Karviná 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.348 / def 1.660 | Karviná attack 0.592 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Karviná xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 53% chance of winning, Karviná a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Karviná (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.59x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.41
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.03
1.18
Karviná xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
26.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.18 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 3D 12L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.43 PPG from 23 outings (1W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.36 points per game from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.87 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 7D 15L in their last 23 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Karviná away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.55 PPG; Karviná away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 73%, Karviná 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 82% (Mlada Boleslav) and 36% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 27% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 36% of Karviná's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Karviná tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Karviná in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Karviná 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.18 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Karviná landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.35 / defence 1.66 against Karviná attack 0.59 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 23% | Karviná 24%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Karviná 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.