Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.50 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Hradec Králové 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.29 xG and Hradec Králové 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.031 / defence 1.234 | Hradec Králové attack 0.858 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.392. Data: 35 Mlada Boleslav games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 32% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 32% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.29 / Hradec Králové 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.031 / def 1.234 | Hradec Králové attack 0.858 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.68
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.76
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.52
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.47 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 15W 8D 16L from 39 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 13L across 39 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.36 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.23 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 13W 13D 13L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.47 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Mlada Boleslav) and 47% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 47% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.29 xG and Hradec Králové 1.47 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 32% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Hradec Králové 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.36 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.