Mlada Boleslav 3-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 0.80 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 2 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Hradec Králové 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 63% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.091 / defence 1.180 | Hradec Králové attack 1.030 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.237. Data: 33 Mlada Boleslav games / 34 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.57 / Hradec Králové 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.091 / def 1.180 | Hradec Králové attack 1.030 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 39% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (8 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 4W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.09x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.97
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.07
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.50 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 15L across 38 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.11 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.16 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.26 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 47%, Hradec Králové 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 53% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 32% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Hradec Králové 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 1.50 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Hradec Králové attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.11 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.