Mlada Boleslav 4-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lokotrans Aréna plays host to Mlada Boleslav versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mlada Boleslav, 0.90 for České Budějovice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, České Budějovice in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Mlada Boleslav are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 59% and České Budějovice 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | České Budějovice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.23 xG and České Budějovice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.244 / defence 0.958 | České Budějovice attack 0.892 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.095. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Mlada Boleslav games / 33 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 67% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 14%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | České Budějovice 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | České Budějovice 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 67% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.23 / České Budějovice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.244 / def 0.958 | České Budějovice attack 0.892 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.94
České Budějovice xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice?
Mlada Boleslav 4 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 67% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 6W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.89x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.32
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.17
0.94
České Budějovice xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
11%
9.33
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
64.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.94 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 15W 8D 16L from 39 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 22L across 39 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 10W 2D 7L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 6D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 9D 22L in their last 39 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or České Budějovice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.68 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Mlada Boleslav, 63% for České Budějovice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Mlada Boleslav and 58% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 63% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 58% of České Budějovice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 4-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 4-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.23 xG and České Budějovice 0.94 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against České Budějovice attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 67% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 14%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, České Budějovice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.