Karviná 2-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Městský Stadión, Karviná have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Karviná, 0.70 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Karviná 0W, Teplice 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Teplice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 48% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.28 xG and Teplice 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.933 / defence 1.475 | Teplice attack 0.799 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Karviná games / 30 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 36% | Draw 27% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 90% | Teplice 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 36% | Draw 27% | Teplice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Karviná 1.28 / Teplice 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.933 / def 1.475 | Teplice attack 0.799 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Teplice xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 2 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 36% chance of winning, Teplice a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Karviná and Teplice in?
Karviná (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.93x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.80x) against Karviná's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.67
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.56
1.28
Teplice xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Karviná and 1.28 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Karviná have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 3W 9D 21L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 8W 4D 21L from 33 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.55 PPG for Karviná against 0.85 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (1W 8D 7L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 2D 11L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.94 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 3W 9D 21L in their last 33 games (0.55 PPG), while Teplice have gone 8W 4D 21L in their last 33 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.69 PPG; Teplice away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 88%, Teplice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Karviná) and 56% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Karviná's games and 38% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Karviná's matches and 56% of Teplice's.
Do Karviná and Teplice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Teplice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Teplice finished level at 2-2 at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.28 xG and Teplice 1.28 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.93 / defence 1.48 against Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 36% | Draw 27% | Teplice 36%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 48%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.55 PPG, Teplice 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.