Karviná 3-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Pardubice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský Stadión this season.
Pardubice have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pardubice's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Karviná against 0.70 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Karviná register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Pardubice in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 62% and Pardubice 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 52% | Pardubice 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.87 xG and Pardubice 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.851 / defence 1.429 | Pardubice attack 0.811 / defence 1.942. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.942 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Karviná games / 29 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 51% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Pardubice 3.85. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karviná are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 80% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 51% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Karviná 1.87 / Pardubice 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.851 / def 1.429 | Pardubice attack 0.811 / def 1.942 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Karviná (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Pardubice xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Pardubice kick off?
Karviná vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Karviná 3 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Karviná vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Pardubice part of?
Karviná vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 51% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Karviná and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in?
Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.85) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.94), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.81x) against Karviná's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.31
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.16
1.29
Pardubice xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Karviná and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Karviná and 1.29 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná come into this having played 29 games, going 2W 8D 19L for 0.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.83 PPG from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.48 PPG for Karviná against 0.83 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karviná's home form reads 0W 7D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (3W 1D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.14 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pardubice in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 8D 19L in their last 29 games (0.48 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 5W 9D 15L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Pardubice away?
Pardubice's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.50 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Pardubice have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Karviná, 79% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Karviná and 86% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Karviná's games and 79% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Karviná's matches and 86% of Pardubice's.
Do Karviná and Pardubice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Pardubice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Pardubice 3-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.87 xG and Pardubice 1.29 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.85 / defence 1.43 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.94, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 51% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 26%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 52%, Pardubice 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.48 PPG, Pardubice 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.