Karviná 1-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Karviná welcome Baník Ostrava to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 24 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 0W 4D 3L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Baník Ostrava's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Karviná's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 62% and Baník Ostrava 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 46% | Baník Ostrava 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.25 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.883 / defence 1.335 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.894 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.274. Data: 13 Karviná games / 14 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 44%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 86% | Baník Ostrava 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Karviná 1.25 / Baník Ostrava 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.883 / def 1.335 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.894 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Karviná 1 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karviná's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
31%
3.20
25%
3.97
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Karviná and 1.52 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karviná come into this having played 13 games, going 0W 5D 8L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karviná's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 5D 8L in their last 13 games (0.38 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.50 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karviná and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Karviná 0-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Karviná at 83%, Baník Ostrava at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Karviná) and 50% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Karviná's games and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karviná's matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Karviná and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Karviná 1-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.25 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 44%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 46%, Baník Ostrava 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.