Hradec Králové 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 44%, yet in-form Sparta Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 5D 0L this season (9 games, 1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 4W 2D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.62 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 56% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 44% | Sparta Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.74 xG and Sparta Praha 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.925 / defence 0.944 | Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.310. Sparta Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Hradec Králové games / 18 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 33%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Praha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Praha (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 56% | Sparta Praha 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hradec Králové 1.74 / Sparta Praha 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.925 / def 0.944 | Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sparta Praha xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Hradec Králové 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.32
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.21
1.47
Sparta Praha xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.47 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 7D 5L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 4W 4D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 13W 3D 2L in their last 18 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sparta Praha away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Sparta Praha 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Hradec Králové and 88% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 75% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Hradec Králové's matches and 88% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.74 xG and Sparta Praha 1.47 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 1.37, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 33%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Sparta Praha 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.