Hradec Králové 4-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Slavia Praha travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 57% versus Slavia Praha 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Slavia Praha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.30 xG and Slavia Praha 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.141 / defence 1.348 | Slavia Praha attack 1.297 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 51%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Slavia Praha 1.96. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Slavia Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Hradec Králové 1.30 / Slavia Praha 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.141 / def 1.348 | Slavia Praha attack 1.297 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Slavia Praha xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 4 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 26% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.14x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
26%
3.84
23%
4.37
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.20
1.90
Slavia Praha xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.68
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
4%
25.64
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.90 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 9W 13D 8L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 23W 4D 3L across 30 games — 2.43 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 6W 7D 2L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 9W 4D 2L across 15 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.37 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 9W 13D 8L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 23W 4D 3L in their last 30 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 60%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hradec Králové) and 53% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hradec Králové's games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slavia Praha 4-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.30 xG and Slavia Praha 1.90 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.14 / defence 1.35 against Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 51%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 47%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.