Hradec Králové 1-5 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Slavia Praha travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Slavia Praha trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Slavia Praha 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 41% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.10 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.963 / defence 1.131 | Slavia Praha attack 1.182 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.165. Data: 22 Hradec Králové games / 22 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 27% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 48%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Slavia Praha 2.08. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | Slavia Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 27% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Hradec Králové 1.10 / Slavia Praha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.963 / def 1.131 | Slavia Praha attack 1.182 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 5 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 27% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.96x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
27%
3.71
25%
3.96
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.66
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
17.64
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.56 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 6W 9D 7L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 2L across 22 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 4W 6D 1L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 7W 3D 1L across 11 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.41 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 17W 3D 2L in their last 22 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.64 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Slavia Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Hradec Králové) and 54% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 54% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Hradec Králové 1-5 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.10 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Slavia Praha attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 27% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 48%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.