Hradec Králové 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hradec Králové's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sigma Olomouc away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.70 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Hradec Králové have won 2, Sigma Olomouc 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Hradec Králové 3–1 Sigma Olomouc — a Hradec Králové win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Sigma Olomouc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 38% | Sigma Olomouc 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.055 / defence 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.109 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.229. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 40 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 40.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.30 | Draw 3.39 | Sigma Olomouc 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Sigma Olomouc 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.055 / def 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.109 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 40 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.39
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.09 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 16W 10D 16L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 18L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 12W 4D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across their last 21 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 67%.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.90 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when Hradec Králové won Hradec Králové 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Hradec Králové 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Sigma Olomouc 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hradec Králové) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Hradec Králové's games and 67% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 81% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 12, as Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 38%, Sigma Olomouc 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.