Hradec Králové 2-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 0.80 (Mlada Boleslav). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 58% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 46% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.014 / defence 1.400 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.846 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.156. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Hradec Králové games / 26 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Mlada Boleslav 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.014 / def 1.400 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.846 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.98
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.82
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.37 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 8W 10D 8L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 9W 4D 13L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.62 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 62%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hradec Králové's games and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 2-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 46%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.