Hradec Králové 1-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Malsovicka arena, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.60 PPG, Karviná 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Hradec Králové have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Karviná have managed just 1 wins.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 4–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 36% versus Karviná 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Karviná 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Karviná 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.937 / defence 0.938 | Karviná attack 1.050 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.372. Data: 31 Hradec Králové games / 31 Karviná games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 40% | Draw 25% | Karviná 35%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 30% | Karviná 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 40% | Draw 25% | Karviná 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Karviná 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.937 / def 0.938 | Karviná attack 1.050 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 1 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 40% chance of winning, Karviná a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 4W | Draws 3 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Karviná (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.94x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
40%
2.53
25%
3.96
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.80
1.35
Karviná xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.35 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 8D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.42 PPG, Karviná on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Karviná have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.62 PPG; Karviná away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Karviná runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 38%, Karviná 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hradec Králové) and 69% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 69% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 69% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Karviná in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Karviná 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Karviná attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 40% | Draw 25% | Karviná 35%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Karviná 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG, Karviná 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.