Hradec Králové 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 42%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Karviná have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Karviná have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karviná are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Karviná and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2025, ended Hradec Králové 1–1 Karviná — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 45% versus Karviná 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | Karviná 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.849 / defence 0.924 | Karviná attack 1.178 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Karviná's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hradec Králové's projected output up. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Karviná's last 60.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Karviná 33%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.41 | Draw 3.93 | Karviná 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Karviná 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.50 / Karviná 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.849 / def 0.924 | Karviná attack 1.178 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Karviná a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.85x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Karviná's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.41
25%
3.93
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Karviná xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.31 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 17D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.17 PPG from 65 outings (20W 16D 29L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.37 PPG, Karviná on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 15W 9D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Karviná have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.69 PPG; Karviná away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Karviná in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won Karviná 0-4 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Karviná 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hradec Králové) and 62% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Karviná in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 59% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 62% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 81% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Karviná 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Karviná attack 1.18 / defence 1.30, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Karviná 33%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karviná's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Karviná 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.