FK Jablonec 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zlin travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zlin — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Zlin away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FK Jablonec 0.90 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 0 for Zlin and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–1 Zlin — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 62% and Zlin 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.20 xG and Zlin 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.106 / defence 1.203 | Zlin attack 0.971 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.243. Zlin's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zlin's projected output up. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 58 games and Zlin's last 58.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.84 | Draw 4.83 | Zlin 4.03. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.20 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG FK Jablonec 2.20 / Zlin 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.106 / def 1.203 | Zlin attack 0.971 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Zlin xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Zlin FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 54% chance of winning, Zlin a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 58 games and Zlin's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.83
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.66
1.45
Zlin xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
11%
9.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
3%
36.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.45 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 20D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (13W 22D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.08 PPG, Zlin on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 12D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 31 away games (2W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.25 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zlin in 65%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ FK Jablonec vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Zlin have gone 13W 22D 28L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.35 PPG; Zlin away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 68%, Zlin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 58% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FK Jablonec's games and 55% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 58% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 68% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.20 xG and Zlin 1.45 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Zlin attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.08 PPG, Zlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.