FK Jablonec 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 42%, yet in-form Slovan Liberec provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slovan Liberec arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Slovan Liberec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 66% and Slovan Liberec 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 58% | Slovan Liberec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.55 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 1.283 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.938 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.111. Data: 37 FK Jablonec games / 37 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 33%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Slovan Liberec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovan Liberec (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG FK Jablonec 1.55 / Slovan Liberec 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / def 1.283 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.938 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 42% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 2 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.00x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.94x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
42%
2.36
25%
4.05
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.88
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.34 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 14D 17L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.27 PPG from 41 outings (14W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.27 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 6W 8D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.37 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 68%, Slovan Liberec 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FK Jablonec) and 63% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FK Jablonec's games and 58% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FK Jablonec's matches and 63% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 8, as FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.55 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 33%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 58%, Slovan Liberec 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.07 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.