FK Jablonec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 0.96 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.665 / defence 1.167 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.904 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.307. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 FK Jablonec games / 19 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 26% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 47%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 2.13. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 44% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 26% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG FK Jablonec 0.96 / Sigma Olomouc 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.665 / def 1.167 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.904 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 26% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.90x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
26%
3.83
27%
3.66
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.34
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.38 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 3W 7D 9L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 7L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.16 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.63 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.11 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 44%, Sigma Olomouc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for FK Jablonec and 44% for Sigma Olomouc.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 33% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 0.96 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.67 / defence 1.17 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 26% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 47%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.84 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.