FK Jablonec 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Plzen — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Plzen trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 48% versus Plzen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 36% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 0.80 xG and Plzen 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.739 / defence 1.081 | Plzen attack 0.987 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.156. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 FK Jablonec games / 25 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 46%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG FK Jablonec 0.80 / Plzen 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.739 / def 1.081 | Plzen attack 0.987 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Plzen xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 24% chance of winning, Plzen a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.74) and Plzen's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
24%
4.15
30%
3.38
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.04
1.23
Plzen xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.23 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 4W 11D 10L from 25 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 3D 2L across 25 games — 2.52 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 8W 2D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.88 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 11D 10L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Plzen have gone 20W 3D 2L in their last 25 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.25 PPG; Plzen away: 2.17 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Plzen in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Plzen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for FK Jablonec and 42% for Plzen.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 42% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 42% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 26, as FK Jablonec and Plzen drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 0.80 xG and Plzen 1.23 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Plzen attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 36%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.