FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadion Strelnice — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Karviná (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Karviná — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Karviná 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Karviná 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Karviná 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.922 / defence 0.852 | Karviná attack 1.153 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.189. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 FK Jablonec games / 52 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 28% | Karviná 28%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Karviná 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Karviná 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 28% | Karviná 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FK Jablonec 1.53 / Karviná 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.922 / def 0.852 | Karviná attack 1.153 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Karviná xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 44% chance of winning, Karviná a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Record (9 meetings): FK Jablonec 5W | Draws 3 | Karviná 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Karviná (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.92) and Karviná's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.15x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.55
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Karviná xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.17 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 54 games, going 30W 11D 13L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.35 PPG from 54 outings (21W 10D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (10W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.39 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 63%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 30W 11D 13L in their last 54 games (1.87 PPG), while Karviná have gone 21W 10D 23L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Karviná away: 1.31 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Karviná in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 42%, Karviná 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FK Jablonec and 81% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of FK Jablonec's games and 73% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FK Jablonec's matches and 81% of Karviná's.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Karviná in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Karviná 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Karviná attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 28% | Karviná 28%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karviná's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.