České Budějovice 3-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates České Budějovice at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Pardubice meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Pardubice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — České Budějovice lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Pardubice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 59% | Pardubice 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.71 xG and Pardubice 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.960 / defence 1.058 | Pardubice attack 0.815 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. Data: 59 České Budějovice games / 59 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 22%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 4.55. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Pardubice 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG České Budějovice 1.71 / Pardubice 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.960 / def 1.058 | Pardubice attack 0.815 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Pardubice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Pardubice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
České Budějovice 3 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Pardubice part of?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 52% chance of winning, Pardubice a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both České Budějovice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.96x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.81x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.92
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.77
1.05
Pardubice xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
24.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.05 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 14D 29L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Pardubice's form line: 17W 12D 32L from 61 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.03 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 8W 3D 19L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.07 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 18W 14D 29L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 17W 12D 32L in their last 61 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Pardubice away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.57 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Pardubice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for České Budějovice and 67% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 33% of games; Pardubice in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of České Budějovice's games and 60% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of České Budějovice's matches and 67% of Pardubice's.
Do České Budějovice and Pardubice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Pardubice 3-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.71 xG and Pardubice 1.05 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 52% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 22%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 59%, Pardubice 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.11 PPG, Pardubice 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.