České Budějovice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Hradec Králové at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 2W 0D 1L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — České Budějovice at 1.17 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 33% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (České Budějovice 33% | Hradec Králové 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.30 xG and Hradec Králové 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.756 / defence 1.096 | Hradec Králové attack 0.616 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.254. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 České Budějovice games / 6 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 4.17. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 33% | Hradec Králové 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG České Budějovice 1.30 / Hradec Králové 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.756 / def 1.096 | Hradec Králové attack 0.616 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hradec Králové xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové part of?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 47% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both České Budějovice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.50
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.14
0.85
Hradec Králové xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.85 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.17 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Hradec Králové away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.00 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.33 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — České Budějovice 33% BTTS, Hradec Králové 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for České Budějovice and 33% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 33% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of České Budějovice's recent games and 33% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.30 xG and Hradec Králové 0.85 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Hradec Králové attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 33%, Hradec Králové 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.17 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.