České Budějovice 5-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: České Budějovice 1W, FK Jablonec 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus FK Jablonec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 59% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.39 xG and FK Jablonec 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.738 / defence 1.104 | FK Jablonec attack 1.173 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.235. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 České Budějovice games / 57 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 33% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 42%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 30% | FK Jablonec 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 33% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG České Budějovice 1.39 / FK Jablonec 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.738 / def 1.104 | FK Jablonec attack 1.173 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.60
FK Jablonec xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 5 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 33% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.74) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.17x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.02
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.99
1.60
FK Jablonec xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.60 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 13D 29L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 14W 22D 23L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.08 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.12 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 14W 22D 23L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.52 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 48%, FK Jablonec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (České Budějovice) and 55% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 34% of games; FK Jablonec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 55% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of České Budějovice's matches and 55% of FK Jablonec's.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant České Budějovice run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat FK Jablonec 5-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.39 xG and FK Jablonec 1.60 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against FK Jablonec attack 1.17 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 33% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 42%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 59%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.08 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.