České Budějovice 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for České Budějovice, 0.70 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: České Budějovice 0W, Bohemians 1905 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 57% versus Bohemians 1905 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 57% | Bohemians 1905 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.032 / defence 1.113 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.635 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 České Budějovice games / 28 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 5.26. The model has a clear lean to České Budějovice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG České Budějovice 1.55 / Bohemians 1905 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.032 / def 1.113 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.635 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 55% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.64x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.80
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.34
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.80 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 8W 9D 11L from 28 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 15L across 28 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.89 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.14 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.93 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
České Budějovice
2
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 57%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (České Budějovice) and 57% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of České Budějovice's games and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of České Budějovice's matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.64 / defence 1.38, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 57%, Bohemians 1905 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.18 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.