České Budějovice 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates České Budějovice at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.10 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across 6 previous meetings, České Budějovice are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives České Budějovice a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 55% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Bohemians 1905 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.75 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.045 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.982 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.57. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 40% | Bohemians 1905 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights