Bohemians 1905 3-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 0 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 4–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 61% and Zlin 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 57% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.30 xG and Zlin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.841 / defence 1.281 | Zlin attack 0.760 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.414. Data: 44 Bohemians 1905 games / 44 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 32% | Zlin 36%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Zlin 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 32% | Zlin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.30 / Zlin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.841 / def 1.281 | Zlin attack 0.760 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Zlin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zlin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance of winning, Zlin a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.84) and Zlin's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
32%
3.10
32%
3.14
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.68
1.38
Zlin xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.38 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 15W 13D 21L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 23L across 49 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Zlin on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 10D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 15D 23L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.17 PPG; Zlin away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 62%, Zlin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians 1905's games and 58% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Zlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 3-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.30 xG and Zlin 1.38 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Zlin attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 32% | Zlin 36%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 57%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Zlin 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.