Bohemians 1905 4-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 80% and Teplice 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 60% | Teplice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.62 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.882 / defence 1.163 | Teplice attack 0.616 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.160. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Bohemians 1905 games / 5 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 80% | Teplice 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.62 / Teplice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.882 / def 1.163 | Teplice attack 0.616 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Bohemians 1905 4 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 56% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.62x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.04
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.45
0.83
Teplice xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
4%
26.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.83 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 0W 3D 2L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.60 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 80%, Teplice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bohemians 1905 and 60% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bohemians 1905's games and 40% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 60% of Teplice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Teplice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Teplice 4-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.62 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Teplice attack 0.62 / defence 1.47, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 60%, Teplice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 0.60 PPG, Teplice 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.