Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.20 for Slovan Liberec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slovan Liberec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 2–2 Slovan Liberec — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Slovan Liberec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 52% | Slovan Liberec 52%). Note also that Slovan Liberec surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.905 / defence 1.249 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.073 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.219. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovan Liberec's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 52 games and Slovan Liberec's last 52.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.19 | Draw 4.14 | Slovan Liberec 2.25. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 60% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.33 / Slovan Liberec 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.905 / def 1.249 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.073 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Slovan Liberec xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.91) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.07x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 52 games and Slovan Liberec's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.14
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.63
Slovan Liberec xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.63 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 20D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.24 PPG from 54 outings (17W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.24 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 9D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 20D 20L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.26 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won Bohemians 1905 4-1 Slovan Liberec on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Slovan Liberec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 52%, Slovan Liberec 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 48% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 37% of games; Slovan Liberec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bohemians 1905's games and 63% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 67% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 52%, Slovan Liberec 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.