Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.62 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Bohemians 1905, 0.80 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Pardubice in 88%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 72% and Pardubice 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 78% | Pardubice 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.92 xG and Pardubice 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.071 / defence 1.268 | Pardubice attack 0.948 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.307. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Bohemians 1905 games / 18 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 3.12. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 75% | Pardubice 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.92 / Pardubice 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.071 / def 1.268 | Pardubice attack 0.948 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Pardubice xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance of winning, Pardubice a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 1.07x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.95x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
46%
2.17
22%
4.55
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.49
1.57
Pardubice xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
5%
21.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.57 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 3D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.78 PPG from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.78 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.22 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Pardubice in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Pardubice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.62 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Pardubice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 88% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Bohemians 1905, 88% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bohemians 1905 and 75% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bohemians 1905's games and 88% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 75% of Pardubice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.92 xG and Pardubice 1.57 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against Pardubice attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 32%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 78%, Pardubice 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG, Pardubice 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.