Bohemians 1905 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bohemians 1905's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karviná (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Karviná 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 41% | Karviná 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Karviná 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / defence 0.895 | Karviná attack 0.837 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 30 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 31% | Karviná 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Karviná 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Karviná 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 31% | Karviná 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.26 / Karviná 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / def 0.895 | Karviná attack 0.837 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Karviná xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance of winning, Karviná a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 2 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Karviná (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.83) and Karviná's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.84x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.21
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.22
0.96
Karviná xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.96 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 12D 12L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 6W 8D 18L from 32 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.81 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 2W 4D 10L from 16 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.06 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Karviná have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.31 PPG; Karviná away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 44%, Karviná 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Bohemians 1905) and 56% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 44% of games; Karviná in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 56% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 56% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Karviná in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Bohemians 1905 1-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Karviná 0.96 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 31% | Karviná 27%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 41%, Karviná 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Karviná 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.