Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Dukla Praha travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.70 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Dukla Praha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.724 / defence 1.189 | Dukla Praha attack 0.731 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.127. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bohemians 1905 games / 52 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Dukla Praha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.17 / Dukla Praha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.724 / def 1.189 | Dukla Praha attack 0.731 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.72x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.15
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.98 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 21D 26L across 56 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.12 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 8D 13L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 3W 11D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 21D 26L in their last 56 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Dukla Praha away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.04 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Dukla Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bohemians 1905) and 43% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games; Dukla Praha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 46% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 43% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Dukla Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.