Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Dolicek Stadium in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Dolicek Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek Stadium.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.20 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 3 for Baník Ostrava and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Baník Ostrava 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Baník Ostrava 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.914 / defence 0.798 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.856 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.245. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 16%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.77 / Baník Ostrava 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.914 / def 0.798 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.856 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Baník Ostrava xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 58% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 3 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.91) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
58%
1.74
26%
3.83
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.62
0.85
Baník Ostrava xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
35.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.85 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.08 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.21 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 37%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Bohemians 1905) and 58% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 37% of games; Baník Ostrava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 58% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 16%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Baník Ostrava 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.