Bohemians 1905 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.10 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Baník Ostrava have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Bohemians 1905.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus Baník Ostrava 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 43% | Baník Ostrava 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.902 / defence 0.965 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.132 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.244. Data: 30 Bohemians 1905 games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 34%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Baník Ostrava 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.46 / Baník Ostrava 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.902 / def 0.965 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.132 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (6 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 3 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.90) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.64
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.82
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.36 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 12D 14L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (14W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. Baník Ostrava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.60 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Pre-Season
Baník Ostrava
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.17 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 44%, Baník Ostrava 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 61% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 61% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.36 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 34%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 43%, Baník Ostrava 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.