Baník Ostrava 2-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 1.40 for Plzen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Baník Ostrava 0W, Plzen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Plzen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 67% versus Plzen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 64% | Plzen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.761 / defence 1.073 | Plzen attack 1.005 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.274. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Baník Ostrava games / 56 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Plzen 2.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 60% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Baník Ostrava 0.94 / Plzen 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.761 / def 1.073 | Plzen attack 1.005 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Plzen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 25% chance of winning, Plzen a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.76x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.00x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
25%
4.01
29%
3.47
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.31
1.37
Plzen xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.37 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 18D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.26 PPG from 61 outings (42W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 2.00 points per game from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.82 scored and 0.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 22W 18D 21L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Plzen have gone 42W 12D 7L in their last 61 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.53 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Plzen in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 70%, Plzen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Baník Ostrava) and 40% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Baník Ostrava's games and 47% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 40% of Plzen's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Plzen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Plzen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 2-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Plzen attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Baník Ostrava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 64%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.