Baník Ostrava 3-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 0W 2D 1L from 3 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.33 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.67. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pardubice in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 67% and Pardubice 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 67% | Pardubice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.20 xG and Pardubice 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.395 / defence 1.059 | Pardubice attack 0.880 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.466. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Baník Ostrava games / 3 Pardubice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 20% | Pardubice 23%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Pardubice 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 67% | Pardubice 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 20% | Pardubice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.20 / Pardubice 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.395 / def 1.059 | Pardubice attack 0.880 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Pardubice xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 56% chance of winning, Pardubice a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.40x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
56%
1.77
20%
4.91
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.57
1.36
Pardubice xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
3%
39.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.36 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Pardubice in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 67%, Pardubice at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Baník Ostrava and 67% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Baník Ostrava's games and 100% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 67% of Pardubice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 3-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.20 xG and Pardubice 1.36 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Pardubice attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 20% | Pardubice 23%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 67%, Pardubice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.