Baník Ostrava 4-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.40 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 70% and Bohemians 1905 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 66% | Bohemians 1905 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.70 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.036 / defence 1.051 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.285 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.332. Bohemians 1905 have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Baník Ostrava games / 45 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 80% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.70 / Bohemians 1905 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.036 / def 1.051 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.285 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 4 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
36%
2.81
25%
4.04
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.49
1.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.80 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 15D 16L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 16W 13D 21L from 50 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.44 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 8W 6D 11L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.44 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.68 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 76%, Bohemians 1905 at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Baník Ostrava and 60% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Baník Ostrava's games and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Bohemians 1905 4-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.70 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.80 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.28 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 66%, Bohemians 1905 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.44 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.