Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 5W 2D 3L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.30 for Wuhan Three Towns. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Wuhan Three Towns in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yunnan Yukun lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 76% and Wuhan Three Towns 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.18 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.185 / defence 1.057 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.237 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Yunnan Yukun games / 53 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 46% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 33%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.03. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.01 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 46% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.18 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.185 / def 1.057 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.237 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Wuhan Three Towns xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 46% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.19) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.24x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 55/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
46%
2.17
21%
4.80
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
4.01
1.83
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.83 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 21W 13D 19L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 26L across 53 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 15W 5D 5L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 3W 8D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.30 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 16D 26L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 2.00 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Yunnan Yukun, 72% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Yunnan Yukun and 68% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 72% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 68% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.