Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.90 for Shanghai Shenhua. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shanghai Shenhua in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yunnan Yukun lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Shanghai Shenhua 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.87 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.102 / defence 1.236 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.243 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.260. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Yunnan Yukun games / 41 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.87 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.102 / def 1.236 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.243 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Shanghai Shenhua xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 38% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.24x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
38%
2.65
22%
4.56
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.81
1.94
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
5%
18.41
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.94 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 11W 9D 10L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 4L across 30 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 9W 3D 3L across 15 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.23 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Shanghai Shenhua in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 19W 7D 4L in their last 30 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Shanghai Shenhua 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 60% (Shanghai Shenhua).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Yunnan Yukun's recent games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.87 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Yunnan Yukun fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Yunnan Yukun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.