Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Yunnan Yukun (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 0W, Qingdao Youth Island 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 75% and Qingdao Youth Island 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 57% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.40 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.963 / defence 1.156 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.981 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.453. Data: 28 Yunnan Yukun games / 58 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 43%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 80% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.40 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.963 / def 1.156 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.981 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Qingdao Youth Island xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 32% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.96x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.98x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.13
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.05
1.65
Qingdao Youth Island xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.01
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.65 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 10W 8D 10L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 9W 10D 9L from 28 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.32 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.36 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 9W 10D 9L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.79 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Yunnan Yukun, 64% for Qingdao Youth Island — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Yunnan Yukun) and 57% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 64% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Yunnan Yukun's recent games and 57% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.40 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.65 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 43%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 57%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.36 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.