Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Yunnan Yukun's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1W, Qingdao Jonoon 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Qingdao Jonoon 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.82 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.978 / defence 0.980 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.984 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.401. Data: 30 Yunnan Yukun games / 30 Qingdao Jonoon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 48% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 48% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.82 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.978 / def 0.980 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.984 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.895 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Qingdao Jonoon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 48% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.98x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.98x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.04
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.17
1.35
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.35 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 9D 10L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.83 PPG from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Yunnan Yukun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Yunnan Yukun's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.47 points per game from 15 outings (1W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.17 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 10D 15L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Qingdao Jonoon won 5-1 on 9 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 47% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Yunnan Yukun's recent games and 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.82 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.35 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 48% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.