Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun host Chongqing Tongliang Long at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Yunnan Yukun have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 85% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.76 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.195 / defence 1.059 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.622 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.397. Data: 55 Yunnan Yukun games / 25 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 56% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 19%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 56% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.76 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.195 / def 1.059 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.622 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 56% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.20) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.00
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.68
0.92
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
31.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 0.92 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yunnan Yukun come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 5D 10L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit at 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (7W 10D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.46 PPG, Chongqing Tongliang Long on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Yunnan Yukun's home form reads 8W 2D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chongqing Tongliang Long have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.04 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 5D 10L in their last 26 games (1.46 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 2.00 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 1 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 62%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 85% (Yunnan Yukun) and 31% (Chongqing Tongliang Long). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yunnan Yukun keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 31%; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 46% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 31% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.