Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Chengdu Better City to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.40 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 2 for Chengdu Better City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 76% and Chengdu Better City 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 67% | Chengdu Better City 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.72 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.174 / defence 1.290 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.139 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.322. Data: 51 Yunnan Yukun games / 51 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 35% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 44%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Chengdu Better City 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Chengdu Better City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 35% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.72 / Chengdu Better City 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.174 / def 1.290 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.139 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 35% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 2W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
35%
2.89
22%
4.59
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.66
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
5%
20.17
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.94 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 6L across 51 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 9D 3L across 25 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.00 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Chengdu Better City in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 30W 15D 6L in their last 51 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.80 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yunnan Yukun at 68%, Chengdu Better City at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Yunnan Yukun and 60% for Chengdu Better City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 72% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 60% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Chengdu Better City 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.72 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.17 / defence 1.29 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 35% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 44%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 67%, Chengdu Better City 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Yunnan Yukun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.