Yunnan Yukun 3-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Yunnan Yukun have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.50 (Beijing Guoan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Yunnan Yukun, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Beijing Guoan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.36 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.086 / defence 1.081 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.168. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Yunnan Yukun games / 38 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.36 / Beijing Guoan 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.086 / def 1.081 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.78
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.22 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 11W 9D 10L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 7L across 30 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.30 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
2
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Beijing Guoan 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 67% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 67% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan finished level at 3-3 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.36 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.96 / defence 0.74, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Beijing Guoan 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.