Yunnan Yukun 0-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun in Super League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.094 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.853 / away 1.219. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 0 games and Beijing Guoan's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.65 | Draw 4.16 | Beijing Guoan 2.61. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Yunnan Yukun 38% and Beijing Guoan 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Yunnan Yukun 0 games, Beijing Guoan 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.52 / Beijing Guoan 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.094 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.853 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Yunnan Yukun 0 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 38% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Yunnan Yukun's last 0 games and Beijing Guoan's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.16
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.05
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.53 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Yunnan Yukun (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
2
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Yunnan Yukun 0-2 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.