Wuhan Zall 4-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 0W 2D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Zall 0.90 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Zall 64% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 43% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.42 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.904 / defence 1.151 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.286. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Wuhan Zall games / 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 39% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Zall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 71% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 39% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.42 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.904 / def 1.151 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Wuhan Zall 4 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 39% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.31
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.25 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 1W 8D 5L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 8L across 14 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.79 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Zall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 8D 5L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shijiazhuang Y. J. go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Zall at 71%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Wuhan Zall and 86% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wuhan Zall's games and 86% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 86% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-2 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.42 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Zall beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.84 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 39% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 43%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.79 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Zall win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.