Tianjin Teda 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Relegation Round - 8. Kick-off: Monday 3 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. are 0.50 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 48% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.974 / defence 1.398 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Tianjin Teda games / 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.49 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.974 / def 1.398 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:30 on Monday 3 January 2022 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 35% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.97x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.84x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.56
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.01
1.52
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.52 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 6D 11L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.14 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.80 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Tianjin Teda, 90% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Tianjin Teda and 80% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Tianjin Teda's games and 90% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 80% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.52 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.40 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 48%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 0.86 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.